Category: Guest Author

Guest

Letter to the Editor:

Over the last several months the media focus has been on the state elections that will determine our representatives on a state and national level.  We have been inundated with information, some true, some false.  Who to believe?  What to believe?  We can educate ourselves with not only what the candidate has said, but also what they have done or their record.

Franklin D. Roosevelt said “Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education.” So, educate yourself on our important yet, oft neglected, city election.  In some ways, it will impact our daily lives more than the state and federal elections.  Last week a resource from the Fredericksburg Tea Party was published that posed 16 questions to each of the city candidates.  In case you missed it, the link was https://fredericksburgteaparty.org/election-2020/.  The questions were not biased or leading – so the candidates could fully express their views.

Based on those interviews, I will be supporting Graham Pearson for mayor and Mickey Pool and Jerry Luckenbach for city council.   Why?  – Because each offered practical, common sense, fiscally responsible ideas for solving the city’s existing and growth issues.  I urge you to educate yourself on the candidates and cast an educated vote.

Annette Bennett

Fredericksburg Tea Party

I was a California resident for 64 year, here is what I know that the leftists are not telling you.

Even though Gov. Newsome is blaming Man-Made Climate Change on California wild fires and energy problems, California's climate history has not really changed in 5,000 years from what we know of native American history, geographical, and biological (tree growth rings) data.  California has a rainy season for only a few months of each year.  Most of California's fresh water comes from rainfall in the mountains on the east side of the State.  Every year, "Santa Ana" winds develop from a high atmospheric pressure zone over Nevada and Utah.   This causes high winds flowing west over mountain passes and eastern deserts.  The yearly pattern causes hot and high winds flowing west to low pressure zones over the ocean.  Long before modern man landed in California, lightning strikes caused frequent wildfires.  These fires would burn a large area of existing vegetation growth.  Because of the high frequency of these forest fires, tall trees would survive but the smaller underbrush would be destroyed.  But those ashes would add to the soil to support new growth and nourish the taller trees that did not die in the fires.  This is because the fires were swiftly moving and lower temperature due to the smaller amount of underbrush.

Then came modern man.  Tree harvesting, underbrush clearing, and replanting new young trees was actually good for the ecosystem.  However, modern man was offended by the look of clear cutting.  Liberal policies created new laws that prohibited clear cutting of forests and much of lumber harvesting at all.  On top of that, forest services did everything to prevent all fires from occuring.  That resulted in a higher than normal amount of underbrush growth below the trees.  When a fire actually happened, there was lots of easily burned fuel laying on the ground.  Forest fires burned hotter than pre-man forest fires.  This actually killed all of the trees.  It should be noted that many pine cones only open and drop their seeds after the heat of a small fast fire creates heat to open them.  These trees survive and propagate by fires.  But now, the fire rages too hot, kills the tree, and destroys the pine cone and seeds.

As mentioned above, most of the rain falls in the mountains and then flows to the ocean via rivers.  Mankind likes to build dams across these rivers which stores fresh water to use and also can be used to generate hydro-electric power.  Here again, Liberals stepped in to say that California cannot build a dam across a pretty pristine river.  As such, as the California population grows and grows, there are no new water sources to provide that need.  Liberals prefer to let the water flow to the ocean to preserve tiny fish populations in the delta regions of the State.

In summary, modern Liberal minded people have caused the conditions that now allow extremely hot and damaging forest fires to destroy the State and homes.  They have created drought water conditions in the State. And because of Liberal energy opinions, there is insufficient energy capacity in the entire State.  There are not enough hydro-electric dams.  Of the ones that exist, they want to tear them down.  The one last nuclear plant is going off-line shortly and there are no plans to build any new ones.  There is wind and solar, but these are dependent on conditions and not a constant source.  So California must import almost all of its energy needs because renewable energy is incapable of meeting all of the demands.   In short, Liberal Californians have created their own problems over several decades but are now blaming all of their woes on man-made climate change, which has not really changed at all.  California can be accurate used as an example of what the entire US would look like if Democrats win in November and pass AOC's Green New Deal.

Micheal Belsick

 

Chapter 12 – Climate Change Is the Only Thing Constant

By Michael Belsick

Final Instalment

Let’s look back at what we have learned from each chapter and summarize:

  1. We learned that the Left’s claim that 97% of all climate scientist believe in climate change due to increasing amounts of man-made CO2 was actually only around 32%. While we are not allowed public debate on this topic to accurately determine the numbers, the actual percentages do not matter.  What does matter is that there are still lots of scientists that do not believe even significant changes in carbon dioxide concentrations could trigger a climate change event.
  2. We learned that carbon dioxide should never be considered a pollutant because it is critical for life on Earth. We also learned that CO2 only represents about 0.03% of our atmosphere.  Currently however, CO2 is about 0.04% of our atmosphere.  Keep in mind that water vapor, the other greenhouse gas, ranges from near zero in incredibly dry places to around 4% of the atmosphere in incredibly wet places.    We also learned that there may be something that links changes in CO2 concentrations with changes of temperature.  However, we do not know which attribute initiates the change.  Additionally, the data on a chart of temperature and CO2 concentration is questionable at least.
  3. We learned that Milankovitch Cycles affect how the Earth revolves around the sun and around the Earth’s own axis. These changes occur at known periods of time.  These natural changes can have very large impacts on the Earth’s climate, including periods of Ice Ages, independent of CO2  We also learned that all these Milankovitch Cycles can interact with one another affecting something unseen such as tidal changes which then affect something visible like polar ice melting.  It was also known that periods of extreme cold, such as during an ice age, would lower CO2 concentration due to halting of decay process.  We have seen evidence that temperature changes can drive changes to CO2 concentration but not the opposite relationship.  We also learned that volcanos can release monstrous amounts of CO2 with 85% of these volcanos not accounted for by scientists because they are underwater.
  4. We learned a perspective of time that is well beyond our everyday thinking. Massive and significant changes have occurred to the Earth over millions of years.  All of this happened due to natural forces at work.  The presence of mankind or anything that mankind accomplished or generated had no bearing on the causes of these changes.  We also learned that the science of determining what happened and when is not exact; it is a collective best guess.
  5. We learned how solar radiation is reflected into space, used to heat the ground, and how it is bounced around between the Earth and the greenhouse gases in the sky to keep us from freezing at night. This exchange of energy between the Earth and the sky is dependent upon the albedo of the Earth and the water vapor (clouds mostly).  This energy exchange is required for life to exist on Earth.
  6. We learned that natural forces create winds and ocean currents which circulate cool and warm air or water. Essentially, weather is the Earth’s natural heating and ventilation system.  We also learned that there are cycles within cycles that can affect the immediate weather, but these are natural and not part of some growing man-made climate change event.  For example, yearly Santa Ana winds reverse the normal wind patterns in California and bring extremely dry air with very strong winds.  These conditions can turn a minor fire into a devastating raging inferno claiming lives and property. We learned that clouds are the most difficult to account for in any analysis because two similar clouds can behave very differently, thus clouds are typically ignored in climate computer models.  A 1% change in cloudiness could account for all 20th century warming.
  7. We learned that the temperature has risen 1.4 degree F since 1850; Arctic ice may be currently melting some but that is a normal event; Antarctic ice is actually growing; glacier melting has been occurring long before man’s industrialization; river flooding is also a normal weather event with a flood of 1501 being far worse than the most recent one in 2002; there has been no significant change of hurricane frequency or strength since 1851; there has been no significant change of tornado frequency or strength; and ocean levels are currently only rising at a rate of 0.055 inches per year. There is no indication of a pending climate change catastrophe.
  8. We summarized the variables that were capable of changing the Earth’s temperature. The sun is the only real source of heat for the Earth. Milankovitch Cycles affect the amount of heat such that ice ages occur every 100,000 years. The Earth’s energy budget uses the available heat with greenhouse gases (water vapor and CO2) reflecting warmth back to us at night to keep us from freezing.  We learned that the Earth’s average global temperature has only risen 1.4 degree F since 1850 which does not appear to be linked to CO2 concentrations at all.  Normal and natural weather patterns move heat and cold via wind and ocean currents.  Normally, this is very beneficial, but it can have detrimental effects such as California Santa Ana winds rapidly spreading forest fires. We learned that water vapor in the form of clouds has a significant impact on solar radiation which affects the Earth’s temperature.  All the climate predictions from man-made climate change believers ignore the very significant impact that clouds (water vapor – the major component of greenhouse gases) have on temperature because it is too complicated.
  9. We learned that computers are not intelligent or “all knowing”. They are merely incredibly fast at performing tasks.  Essentially, they are only as good as the programmers and reflect any bias of those programmers.  The value or validity of their output represents the value, validity, and accuracy of what was programmed into them.  As such, computers can easily provide false or incomplete answers.  (“Garbage in equals garbage out”).  Finally, while computers are great at some tasks, a global climate computer program is very complex and requires assumptions and simplifications.  Uncertainties in our understanding of climate process; the natural variability of the climate; ignoring what is not understood or is too complicated; and limitations of models, time, and computer processing capability means that the results are not definite predictions of climate.
  10. All the supposedly scientific studies indicating that anthropogenic CO2 is causing global warming comes from the IPCC, which is part of the UN. The IPCC provides grant money to those willing to produce the desired data.  Then the IPCC selects the acceptable scientific papers and data to include in a summary report that is finally handed out to politicians, bureaucrats and the Media.  Thanks to a “whistleblower” that leaked thousands of emails, it was learned that there has been extensive corruption in climate science to promote any research that supports man-made climate change and to suppress research indicating the opposite fact.  Leaked moments of honesty by those involved in this corruption indicate that everything that they do has nothing to do with climate change environmentalism.  It is all about wealth redistribution.
  11. We learned that the “promise” of several renewable energy sources is lacking. For various reasons, several options are extremely unlikely to be able to expand sufficiently to help replace fossil fuels.  Of the viable options, they are unlikely to be able to expand enough to completely replace the need for fossil fuels within the 12 year “catastrophe” deadline.  Additionally, the low cost of fossil fuels will add to the perceived cost of switching to renewable energy sources.  Finally, while renewable energy options seem the best environmentally, a few of the renewable energy options contain hidden environmental and cost factors/impacts that need to be addressed.  In short, renewable energy options cannot replace fossil fuels in 12 years but may in future decades.

 

Conclusion

Everything that I have mentioned in this series of articles is true, documented, and readily available.  However, if you ask Google if man-made climate change is real, then you will get several different websites all claiming that man-made climate change is real.  Conversely, if you ask Google for specific data then you will find information that disputes what the previous man-made climate change sites just told you. For example, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml  contains the data that I presented from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concerning the strength and frequency of hurricanes over the past several years.  So, the real information is available online if you ask for the specific information and not some summary of that information.

Personally, I am a firm believer in natural climate change.  There are tons of clear geological and fossil evidence that the Earth has undergone significant climate changes over the eons of time following natural events and geological changes (ex. continental drift, large meteor impact, etc) plus the Milankovitch Cycles causing ice ages about every 100,000 years.

I also believe, because it can be easily measured, that CO2 levels are higher now than they ever have been before during the past 800,000 years per Antarctic ice core sample.  If you are a plant, like to eat plants, or like to eat animals that eat plants, all this extra CO2 in the atmosphere may be beneficial to life on Earth.

However, there is absolutely no proof that slightly higher levels of CO2 will cause Earth temperatures to rise to levels never experienced.  All man-made climate change predictions are based solely upon changes to the CO2 concentrations.  That is one reason why all predictions have not come true.  Just because Milankovitch determined temperatures changes appear to be in synch with Antarctic ice core CO2 levels does not prove that changes in CO2 levels changed the temperatures.  In fact, Al Gore once had to admit that changes in CO2 concentration lagged the temperature changes.  Rising CO2 concentration raising Earth temperature would be like saying thunder causes lightning.  Gore’s admission reinforces my belief that changes in Earth temperature affected the rate of organic decay, which in turn affected the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.  Otherwise, what caused regular changes in CO2 concentrations eons before modern man’s industrial revolution?

Finally, just because someone says that today’s high temperature is “record setting” does not mean that the same or higher local temperature never existed before someone was there to record it.  Claims of record heat levels, record setting floods, record setting storms, or record setting levels of polar ice melts does not prove that it never existed before.  Generally, it means that the person making these comments is not old enough to remember what occurred many years before.  Weather is never constant and there should be no expectation that it will ever be.

Throughout this document, different chapters offered explanations as to why average Earth temperature could fall and rise independently from CO2; how CO2 is formed and used; how the sun heats the Earth; how the sun’s energy changes over time; how weather is created by differences in solar heating on Earth, and how weather and ocean currents, in turn, distributes that heat and cold around the Earth.  Additionally, real data was provided to rebuke claims made by man-made climate change believers.  It is an illogical argument to make a drastic prediction and then use that prediction as proof for your position on any issue.  (ex., Global warming is making the Earth hotter, which is proof that global warming is real.)  Finally, an explanation was provided as to how climate science can be corrupted due to a political bias that has nothing to do with climate science.  For everything mentioned here, I am a man-made climate change denier and proud of it for being able to see through the fog of deception and go directly to the science.

I also want to state that the anthropogenic climate change believers are using scare tactics to urge the general population to accept their false claims such that the population will be willing to sacrifice everything in order to save the human race.  Let me be quite clear when I say this.  Climate change is real (not due to CO2 concentrations).  It happens repeatedly throughout the history of the Earth and life on Earth.  Most importantly, climate change never killed off all life on Earth.  The wooly mammoth is a good example.  This early relative to the Asian elephant was adapted to nicely survive the ice age.  However, as the ice age came to an end as the Earth warmed up, the wooly mammoth was less suited for the warmer climate.  What then sealed the fate of the wooly mammoth was the arrival of cave men that hunted the small remaining population to extinction.  Cave men survived the ice age and thrived as things got warmer.  The only “climate change” that brought about an abrupt extinction level event was when a very large meteor (6 to 9 miles wide) crashed into the Earth sending up a cloud of dust into the atmosphere that lasted long enough, blocking out the sun, such that all dinosaurs died out.  However, luckily for us, all the smaller mammals survived.  The age of the dinosaurs ended as the age of mammals began.

I understand that some people, mainly Liberals, will never accept what I have explained in these chapters.  After all, I admitted being a “denier”.  For those, I have two recommendations:

  • If you still believe that man-made CO2 is destroying the Earth, then I hope that you at least go protest the countries that produce the most CO2 “pollution”.  CO2 production in the US has already started declining, shown in Figure 44.  Meanwhile, CO2 emissions in China and India are escalating.  Travel there to protest.

Figure 44. How Carbon Emissions have Changed Since 2000

  • If you still believe that a 10% reduction of CO2 in the US is not enough, then here is a simple way to cut all US CO2 emissions in half:
    • After you read this, immediately throw away all your car keys, even if you have an electric vehicle since you do not know how that electricity was generated.
    • Go buy a bicycle. Save the environment and get exercise at the same time.
    • Turn off all heating and electrical power to your house. Natural gas is bad, and you still do not know where that electricity comes from.
    • I could suggest getting a horse, but they produce methane.
    • Take out all lawn and plant a vegetable garden to avoid trips to any grocery store.
    • Adopt a lifestyle that your great great grandparents had and enjoy feeling that you have truly done your part to save the planet.

Following these two suggestions will cut US CO2 emissions in half once all Democrats adopt a more primitive but enlightened lifestyle.  As you sit on your front porch rocking away the evening because there is no TV Media, please feel free to condemn all Republicans for keeping their modern conveniences.

As an important take-away from what I have written, everyone, Republicans and Democrats, wants clean air and water.  Please do not confuse CO2 higher concentrations with smog which is mostly nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, ozone, smoke and other particulates suspended in air.  Carbon dioxide is odorless and colorless, meaning that you cannot smell it or see it.  As I have indicated with scientific facts, the higher levels of carbon dioxide indicated has not been proven to be responsible for any increase in Earth’s temperature or climate change.

As a final thought to Democrats, I understand that you like to believe whatever Democratic politicians or those in the Media tell you to believe because you trust them.  Please be skeptical enough to do some research on your own to prove to yourself that what I have written is true.  Then you will realize that those you trusted have misled you.

As a final thought to Republicans, if you are willing to resist Progressive notions that Socialism will make the US better, why do you stay silent when Progressives claim that man-made climate change is real and we must immediately stop using all fossil fuels and surrender control to a Progressive government?  Stand up for the truth!

As a final thought to leave for Greta Thumberg:

Climate Change is NOT killing off all the polar bears or your generation! (see Figure 45)

Go back home and try to be a normal teenager ignoring what adults tell you.

Figure 45. Polar Bear Population Estimates

Here is list of just a few climate change books that I have read:

  • The Real Inconvenient Truth by M.J. Sangster PhD
  • The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science by Tim Ball PhD
  • Inconvenient Facts by Jack Wadden
  • Plus, there is always the Internet once you get past the references that the Left wants you to read

 

Chapter 11 – Available Sources of US Energy

By Michael Belsick

 

Figure 39 and Figure 40 show the current sources of energy used to generate electricity in the US and their percentage of use. What do these figures tell us? Fossil fuels were used to generate 63.6% of all electricity made and used in the US in 2018.  It is extremely doubtful that one could grow the current 17% of renewables to 80.6% in just 12 years.

Figure 39. Sources of US Electricity Generation, 2018

Figure 40. US Electricity Generation by Source

 

Thanks to the movie “The China Syndrome”, the nuclear reactor in Chernobyl and the one in Japan, the American public distrusts nuclear power plants.  Currently however, there are 61 commercial operating nuclear reactors in 29 States meeting 19.4% of the US electrical needs.  The largest nuclear power plant, Palo Verde in Arizona, provides 3.9 gigawatts of electricity to 4 million customers.  Due to the building and operating costs and the political perception, it is doubtful that any new nuclear reactors will be built in the US.

Let’s look at the renewable sources

Hydro-electric

Hydro-electric is by far the best energy source to generate electricity.  For energy comparison, the Hoover dam generates 4.5 gigawatts of electricity (more than the largest nuclear plant) for 8 million people.  Just for cost comparison, hydroelectric power costs 0.63 cents per kilowatt compared to 1.33 cents per kilowatt using nuclear, 2.26 cents per kilowatt using coal, and 4.54 cents per kilowatts using natural gas.

Falling water is all that is needed to turn a turbine to generate electricity.  However, to use falling water, one needs mountains and a fair amount of rainfall.  Dams can be built in hills for water storage, but one needs a good vertical height difference to turn a turbine to generate electricity.  The Midwest has no mountains.  One is left with the Sierra Nevada, the Rockies, and the Appalachians as the major mountain ranges.  One also needs Liberals to stop preventing dam construction and desire to tear down all existing dams.  California Liberals have prevented California from building any substantial dams (over a million acre) since 1979, even though California is in a constant state of drought since most fresh water is mandated to flow into the ocean to preserve wetland habitats.  Even the last small flood control dam was built in 2012.  Hetch Hetchy is a major dam servicing the San Francisco Bay Area with water and electricity.  However, Liberals want to tear it down to restore the pristine Tuolumne River flowing out of Yosemite Valley.  For as excellent as it is for generating electricity, the US is not likely to increase hydro-electric generation much beyond the existing 7%.

Wind

Currently, wind power is used to turn large turbine blades to generate electricity that amounts to 6.5% of US production needs.  The problem with wind turbines is that you need an area with lots of constant wind.  Low velocity wind will barely generate any electricity at all.  Mountain passes work well because the wind is channeled through the pass increasing the velocity of the wind but isn’t consistent.  There are two problems with wind turbines.  First, no one wants to look at them.  A picturesque mountain valley becomes an eye sore with a field of thousands of wind turbines.  As such, one will never find wind turbines near major population centers.  Put it this way, with all the good coastal winds in Martha’s Vineyard, you will never get the rich people that live there to approve wind turbines ruining their views.  The other problem with wind turbines is once again Liberals call for their removal because many birds, like eagles and hawks, are killed by the turbine blades.  In the future, one might be able to build more wind turbines where only the poor or middle class will complain.  Just as a guess, wind power may be able to grow from 6.5% to 20%.

Biomass

Biomass energy source is relatively new, meeting only 1.4% of US energy needs.  The problem with biomass energy creation is the competition for available arable lands required for growing food.  There are also potential environmental issues as well.  In my opinion, and many others, biomass energy is a nice experimental project but one that will never be able to meet the US energy needs.  If biomass energy grows at all, it may only get up to 5% at best.

Geothermal

Geothermal is currently only 0.4% because there are very limited areas of geothermal energy available to harness.  Senator Harry Reid’s brother was able to get a huge stimulus package of Obama money to build a geothermal plant ($79M loan guarantee plus $66M in grants).  Currently, that company is failing but is still able to provide energy for 35,000 homes but only 22 employees were ever hired for all that stimulus money provided.  While very optimistic in my opinion, an MIT study indicated that geothermal might be able to supply 10% of US energy needs in the far future.

Solar

The final energy source is solar which can be broken down into two types: solar thermal and solar photovoltaic which provide 0.1% and 1.4% of US energy needs, respectively.  Solar thermal plants are typically only located in deserts.  Thousands of large mirror panels are arranged around a central tower a couple hundred feet above ground.  All the mirrored surfaces on the ground reflect sunlight to the top of the tower.  With all these mirrored panels reflecting sunlight to the same spot, the top of the tower gets incredibly hot.  Water is circulated to the top of the tower where it turns into steam and expands to turn a turbine attached to a generator.  The average power capacity for one of these solar thermal energy stations is approximately 0.12 gigawatts.  The disadvantage of this type of power generation is that all the mirrored panels must be computer operated to turn as the sun moves.  These power stations only work during the day and are less affective on cloudy days, they require a lot of land, and on top of that, any bird that happens to fly through this light is toast.  Due to geographical limitations, growth here is probably limited to 5% max.

Solar photovoltaic electricity generation is basically electricity generated from solar panels, usually located on rooftops.  Theoretically, if one could greatly increase the number of solar panels in the US, one could replace coal and natural gas.

There are a number of issues with solar panels that make this theoretical unrealistic. First is the solar panel quantity/size needed to produce a useable output.  A typical solar panel is 16.5 square feet and can produce up to 320W in perfect conditions. The actual amount of electricity generated depends on the number of hours of peak sunlight. This varies depending on the latitude, the direction the panels face, the season, and even weather conditions. The solar energy and sun time diminish the further from the equator the panels are located. Summer days are longer than winter days. Obviously, there is more solar energy on sunny days than cloudy or rainy days. Other weather impacts include damage from hail storms or being covered by snow. Solar panels also lose efficiency over time. Assuming that a solar panel provides an average of 250W per month and a typical home uses 7.5kW per month, a minimum of 30 panels would be needed which would require at least 495 square foot of south facing space. Furthermore, keep in mind that solar panels do not work at night.  In addition to the solar panels, one would also need to either have a large battery to store power or use power from the grid at night.  While excellent is some ways, solar photovoltaic panels have major environmental issues.  Several hazardous materials/chemicals are used in their manufacture and there are toxic chemicals that must be disposed after production.  Based on manufacturing “costs” (manufacturing and disposal) and location viability, US energy growth could reach to 15%.

Will it be enough?

Figure 41 indicates that the use of coal to generate power (thanks to President Obama) has greatly decreased.  Natural gas is still increasing, even at an accelerated rate once fracking become more prevalent.  Nuclear power has been about constant since around 1990.  Renewable energy has been increasing but at a slow rate of increase.  Can you look at this graph and the rate of change for renewables and honestly say that you believe that renewables can replace all electrical power generation from coal and natural gas in 12 years?

Figure 41. US Electricity Generation by Major Energy Source, 1950-2018

Figure 42 shows a summary of potential energy changes per my and other opinions:

Source Current Use My Estimated Use Change
Nuclear 19.4% 19.4% No Change
Hydro 7%  7% No Change
Wind 6.5% 20% +13.5%
Solar Thermal 0.1% 5% +4.9%
Solar Voltaic 1.4% 15% +13.6%
Biomass 1.4% 5% +3.6%
Geothermal 0.4% 10% +9.6%
Estimated Growth 45.2%

Figure 42. Summary of Potential Energy Changes

Even though I believe that a 45.2% growth in renewable energy sources is an extremely generous prediction, the US needs renewable energy to grow by 63.6% so that all forms of fossil fuels could be abandoned.  You are 18.4% short from being able to accomplish the goal.   Renewable energy cannot replace fossil fuel in the near timeframe for US energy needs.  As I previously mentioned, Liberals are preventing construction of any new dams for hydro-electric power. Liberals are also making it harder for other renewable energy sources due to a desire to conserve nature.  As mentioned, nuclear has a negative connotation.  If that could be resolved, there is still the issue that Liberals have billions of federal acreage preserved for “nature” which cannot be mined.  If you want more nuclear power plants, then you need more sources of uranium.  (The Obama administration allowed the sale of 25% of US uranium to Russia.)  However, vast uranium deposits are not allowed to be mined.  The same impact would be on the necessary minerals to make solar panels.  If you cannot get the materials needed, the expansion of renewable energy is impacted.  The US has 2 options: 1) do what you can but keep using fossil fuels as required; or 2) do what you can but greatly cut back on electrical use if you cannot meet the 63% total of fossil fuel current usage.

Keep in mind that we have not even addressed gasoline or diesel for vehicles or jet fuel for airplanes.  The cost of using fossil fuels is relatively cheap. The cost to convert to alternate energy sources is very expensive in terms of actual dollars and potential environmental costs.

Battery cars are becoming more prominent, but they need electricity.  Battery production and disposal is also a significant environmental concern.   Also, there are more carbon emissions with manufacturing of an electric or hybrid car than gas cars.   If one converted to all electric vehicles tomorrow, then your electric needs across the US just exponentially expanded.  As such, your renewable energy source just estimated is way too short.

As for solar panels on planes and cars, that is nearly impossible per engineering principles.  There was an experimental plane that was powered by solar panels.  It was a very large winged aircraft and was only able to carry one person, the pilot.  There is not enough energy from solar panels to power an airplane for all practicality.  The plane would need a lot of more solar panels, requiring much larger wings, which would require more energy, which would require more solar panels…

There have also been experimental cars which ran on solar panels.  They were incredibly light weight vehicles carrying only the driver and drove on a very flat road (no hills).  Here again, solar panel powered cars are currently not engineering feasible.

Hydrogen Fuel Cells

There is a potential for a non-fossil fuel source with a lot of energy output potential – Hydrogen Fuel Cells.  A fuel cell is a device that converts chemical potential energy (energy stored in molecular bonds) into electrical energy, simplistically shown in Figure 43.  A PEM (Proton Exchange Membrane) cell uses hydrogen gas (H2) and oxygen gas (O2) as fuel.  The products of the reaction in the cell are water, electricity, and heat.  This is a big improvement over internal combustion engines, coal burning power plants, and nuclear power plants, all of which produce harmful by-products.

I understand that there is great potential here.  However, even as an engineer, I am cautious.  I remember my high school chemistry class.  My teacher filled a balloon with hydrogen, let it float to the ceiling, then with a match on the end of a long stick, he ignited the hydrogen which produced a very large BOOM.  Hydrogen as in the Hindenburg is extremely flammable to being almost explosive.

Currently, Toyota, Hyundai, and Honda have cars with hydrogen fuel cells.  Naturally, one would need a proliferation of fueling stations before one would consider buying one of these cars.  Personally, I would also wait quite a while to see if there are any problems.  As I explained however, there is great potential here for the future, but not yet for me.

I also understand that Germany now has a train that uses a hydrogen fuel cell.  There is even a small personal aircraft that uses a hydrogen fuel cell.  Promising…

Figure 43. Hydrogen Fuel Cell

The takeaway from this chapter is a shared opinion by me and many other competent sources that renewable energy will not be able to replace all fossil fuel use in just 12 years.  It will be several decades to accomplish if at all.  While a noble goal, there will be significant costs to the consumer and to the US economy.  As of now, the US is energy independent.  For those old enough to remember it, the oil embargo that started in 1973 saw the exponential rise in gasoline prices plus the rationing of gas.  All of that was because the US was dependent upon Middle Eastern oil.  As a result of that nightmare, there was a desire for the US to become energy independent.  The US has reached that goal and is exporting oil and natural gas.  As such, oil prices, after inflation, are now only slightly more than they were decades ago.  With the low price of oil and natural gas, the cost to replace them will seem to be higher.  I do not believe that AOC will be successful with her Green New Deal.  Not only is it not practical or even achievable, but it will be hugely expensive.

Summary

There are renewable energy sources as an alternate to fossil fuels. However, even being optimistic, renewable energy cannot replace fossil fuel in the near timeframe for US energy needs.  And remember, the US energy usage is only a portion of the world’s energy use. While renewable energy options appear to be the best environmentally, some of the renewable energy options contain hidden environmental and cost factors/impacts that need to be addressed.

Chapter 10 – The Politics of Anthropogenic Climate Change

By Michael Belsick

Greta Thumberg, other man-made climate change activists, Democratic politicians, and all Liberal Media “talking heads” tell us that man-made climate change is real and the effects will be irreversible in 12 years if we do not act (spend money) right now.  Where do they get this information since all of them know little or nothing about science?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).  The IPCC “stimulates” research in climate science with grant money.  The IPCC also monitors all work on climate research.  Ultimately, they summarize all the relevant research that they approve and capture that in reports containing a “Summary for Policymakers”.

To answer the above question, every Liberal/Progressive on Earth gets the information about man-made climate change killing the Earth from the bureaucrats in the IPCC.  What could possibly go wrong with that?

So, where do the IPCC bureaucrats get their information?

The IPCC provides grant money to climate scientists that will generate climate data and projections that the IPCC wants.  The IPCC monitors all research in this field but selectively picks and choses the desirable research, thus they bias the results.  The approved research is then selectively summarized into a final report that is then published for all the bureaucrats providing funding to the IPCC.   These same reports are then made available to the Media.

If you graduated with a PhD in climate science, where do you get a job to support yourself?  One could go work for a major corporation and do what they want.  You could teach and do your own scientific research as long as the college was OK with that.  You could solicit grant money to do the research that you wanted.  What if however, most of the grant money available had “strings attached”?

So, let me summarize how this works:

  1. The IPCC provides grant money to scientists that are willing to provide data that the IPCC wants.
  2. The IPCC sorts through all the climate research papers presented and choses the ones to use.
  3. Any research paper that disagrees with IPCC dogma is disputed, condemned, and ridiculed.
  4. The IPCC then “summarizes” all the selected approved research findings, which may or may not represent the original author’s opinions/conclusions.
  5. Finally, the IPCC distributes their summary reports to the Media, climate activists, and politicians. Then they host a conference where everyone uses private jets to fly into some fancy location to promote their findings.

Just as an example to item 4 above, one scientific reviewer who had their comments included in an IPCC Summary for Policy Makers was dismayed to see that their critical comment was deleted from the IPCC report which dramatically changed their conclusion.  That deleted comment was:

“None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed climate changes to the specific cause of increases in greenhouse gases.”

Let’s discuss the possible corruption of the summary reports starting with the originating data.

Remember Dr. Michael Mann’s “Hockey Stick” graph of Earth temperature that so greatly alarmed the world due to the significant temperature spike starting since the 1990s?

 

How does Dr. Mann’s graph (Figure 3 and repeated above) compare to a graph of temperatures as determined by historical (documented) data shown in Figure 35?

Figure 35. The Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age

In Figure 35, there are written records indicating that Vikings were able to colonize Newfoundland and Greenland and grow crops including grapes.  Currently, vineyards cannot grow in these locations due to the cold.  There is identical written evidence for northern England as well.  For this to have happened, it would have had to be warmer in the year 1200 than in 2020.  But that information does not match the “Hockey Stick” temperature chart.  Somebody is not telling the truth.  Personally, I believe the archeologist and historians.

Here are three more temperature charts (Figure 36 through Figure 38) going back even farther from different authors.  None of these four charts matches Dr. Mann’s chart, which is solely used by the man-made climate change believers.  If you wanted to convince the world that the Earth is getting hotter due to recent increases in man-made CO2 concentrations, which chart would you show?

  Figure 36. 2000 Years of Global Temperatures

Figure 37. 11,000 Years of Global Temperatures

Figure 38. Major Climate Changes over Last 15,000 Years

Climate Research Unit Fraud

The Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (in Norwich, England) became the center hub of all climate research.  Essentially, the CRU and the IPCC are one in the same.  In November of 2009, someone “hacked” into the CRU computers and released a thousand emails between researchers, the CRU administration and the IPCC.  This controversy became known as “Climategate” for the obvious implication of what happened to President Nixon.  Books have been written as to what the general public learned from these first leaked emails and the 220,000 later emails released on March 13, 2013.  The following is just a summary of the climate change corruption that had occurred:

  • The CRU ignored obvious evidence that did not meet their desired results. Ex., the CRU selectively used temperature measuring stations that provided the desired higher temperature readings.
    • Atmospheric measuring stations are positioned around the globe, but most are in North America and Europe.
    • Ideally, measuring stations are positioned so as to avoid biased data.
      • Locations in nature provide more honest data than ones located in urban environments, since asphalt and concrete distort the true air temperature reading.
      • Monitors attached to buoys get better ocean temperatures than monitors dragged behind a ship.
    • The CRU colluded, slandered opponents, and corrupted results in a predetermined fashion.
    • The CRU blocked dissent and conspired to secure friendly reviewers to “rubber stamp” climate papers in line with their political motivations.
    • All the investigations into the CRU were covered up and mostly ignored by the Media.
    • Many of those that participated in this corruption were unaware of the scientific deception that was taking place. Some that willingly participated were lured by the funding, employment or prestige.
    • The biggest scandal revealed the length to which people refused outside requests for data, methodology and Freedom of Information (FOI) requests presumably so no could challenge them.
    • The cost of this corruption of climate change by the IPCC is likely to have been in the trillions of dollars.
    • This level of corruption even extended into Wikipedia when William Connolley became the climate change editor for Wikipedia. Connolley created/rewrote 5424 different articles to be more pro man-made climate change.  He deleted 500 articles from Wikipedia that he did not like.  He barred 2000 authors from being able to submit an article to Wikipedia.  He even briefly removed all references to the Medieval Warm Period from Wikipedia to not let it dispute research that ignored this warm period.  Even CBS news wrote about the corruption by Connolley in July of 2008.
    • To Connolley and many others that participated in this science corruption, the “end justifies the means”.

Allow me to provide some very interesting quotes from the IPCC that may help to resolve this discrepancy.

Maurice Strong, founding executive director of the United Nations Environmental Program said:

“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized nations collapse?  Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”

Ottmar Edenhofer, IPCC Chair from 2008 to 2015, said in 2010:

“One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy.  This has almost nothing to do with the environmental policy anymore…. We redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy.”

Christine Stewart, Canadian Minister of the Environment from 1977 to 1999 said:

“No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral environmental benefits… Climate change provides the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world.”

H.L. Mencken (Sept 1880 to Jan 1956), American journalist and satirist said:

“The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false face for the urge to rule it.”

Summary

The supposedly scientific studies indicating that anthropogenic CO2 is causing global warming comes from the IPCC and is biased.  The IPCC provides grant money to those willing to produce the desired data.  The IPCC handpicked scientific papers and data favorable to their position. Only this selected information is included in a summary report that is finally handed out to politicians, bureaucrats and the Media.  Climate scientists that disagree with the IPCC are attacked, ridiculed, and the IPCC works to suppress any results that do not support man-made climate change.  A “whistleblower” showed us that there has been extensive corruption in climate science to promote any research that supports man-made climate change and to suppress research indicating the opposite fact.  Leaked moments of honesty by those involved in this corruption indicate that everything that they do has nothing to do with climate change environmentalism.  It is all about wealth redistribution.

 

 

Chapter 9 – Computer Model Predictions

By Michael Belsick

Everything previously mentioned leads us to a discussion on computers, computer programming, and using computers to make climate predictions.  To start, I must begin the discussion by saying that many people give far more credit to computers than what computers deserve.  That is mainly because most people don’t understand computers and how they can do what they do for us.

Computers are not “all knowing”.  They only know what they have been programmed to know.  As such, Artificial Intelligence is still in its infancy.  While computers have beaten chess masters, it could be said that the computers “cheated”.  By that I mean that for every movement that the chess master makes, the computer can almost instantaneously calculate the next logical move that the chess master will make by running thousands of simulations in seconds.  If you remember the 1983 movie called “War Games” with Matthew Broderick, the teenager saves the world by having the computer that controls all US nuclear missiles play tic-tac-toe with itself millions of times, eventually “learning” that tic-tac-toe is a game that can never be won.  The point that I am making is that the computer’s advantage over man is not yet intelligence. It is the ability to perform repetitive calculations over and over again in an instant.

When I type a word that is misspelled, the computer instantly makes suggestions based upon how I misspelled the word.  The computer does not really know what word I meant to use.  How many times has the computer accepted “form” instead of replacing it with “from”? When anyone types a question for Google to answer, the computer identifies key words in that question and looks for the closest reference that human programmers entered in its database.  In a way, a computer is like a librarian.  When you walk into a library wanting a book, but you are not sure of the title or author, the librarian will search the card catalog (old school) for something close to what you described.  Computers do the exact same thing by making the closest suggestion that match what programmers entered.  For another example, if you typed a question, such as Hank Aaron’s batting average, Goggle will reply instantly because human programmers entered that data. In fact, not only do you get the answer to what you asked, but Google also offers other options that you may want. However, if you meant Hank Aaron, who is your barber but was a high school baseball varsity player, Google will not provide the information that you seek.

One disadvantage of computers is that the computer’s response is based upon the knowledge and bias of the programmer.  During my research into this climate change series of articles, I used Google periodically.  Generally, the first responses supported the notion of man-made climate change.  The answer that I was interested in was after page 6 or so.  In some cases, Google circled back to the responses on page 1.  The computer itself had no bias, but the programmer did.

When man-made climate change believers tell you that computers are predicting a climate change catastrophe in 12 years, be very skeptical because those computers are basing that prediction on only what programmers input.  In college when I learned and used programming, there was a “golden rule” – “garbage in equals garbage out”.  Just to provide a whimsical example, I could use a computer to prove that all Democrats are lying.  I would have a computer monitor the mouth motions of a Democratic politician.  If I programmed the computer such that every time a mouth opened, a lie was stated, then the computer would calculate that the Democratic politician lied repeatedly.  So, any computer prediction is only as valid as the programming that was used.

Climate prediction programs are extremely complex. Although computers are capable of calculating a lot of different scenarios quickly, there is still limitation on how long it will take or the size of a model for realistic purposes. When mechanical engineers, who specialize in mechanical stress analysis, want to analyze what happens when a mechanical part is subjected to external mechanical loads, they build a computer model of the part.  Engineers build a 3-dimensional model of that part with maybe a thousand or more “node” points.  Each “node” point might be considered as the center block with sticks connecting it to other center blocks as in a 3-dimensional tinker toy.  Each node is linked mechanically to all adjacent nodes (up, down, and to each side).

Once the model is built, it is then programmed with how these nodes will interact on each other based on what the programmer thinks will occur. Another programming complexity is deciding which data and algorithms should be used. It is not possible to provide every possible interaction so programmers make assumptions and simplifications.  Most times programmers try to make valid assumptions and not show bias but as knowledge is gained, assumptions may need to be changed. At one time all of mankind knew that the sun revolved around the Earth… Algorithms are often simplified because it would either take too long to compute or we haven’t figured out exactly what happens

Take for example the landing gear of a jumbo jet simulating a “hard” landing. An impact load comparable to a “hard” landing is applied to the generated model. That impact force into the wheel is transferred to the landing gear, then travels to each node within the landing gear model, and finally exits the landing gear at the attachment point to the wing or fuselage.  If that shared impact load at any of these node points exceeds the mechanical properties of the material, then the part fails.  Design engineers, like me, would then need to redesign the landing gear to use a stronger metal alloy or to add more metal to the failed area such that there would be more node points to share this impact load.  The computer model is remade, and the program is run again until the model does not fail. If the interaction of the nodes is incorrectly assumed or the wrong material properties (ex., aluminum) are input into the model, the “behavior” of the landing gear will not represent the actual landing gear.

So, how is anything that I just said relevant to a climate change computer model?  Imagine the number of nodes and types of interactions required to represent the entire Earth. There are a lot of unknowns about climate parameters and interaction so assumptions and simplified algorithms must be made.

My landing gear was a relatively small part, maybe 4 feet long, with a thousand or more node points and might take an hour to run.  How would you analyze the entire Earth?  Your options would be to wait a couple of years while the computer runs the analysis or you would have to drastically increase the distance between node points.  That is exactly what climate change computer analysts have done.  Where my landing gear node may have been a cube of 0.1 inch in all directions, the climate change node likely would have to be a cube 10 to 100 miles in all directions.  So, to construct a model for the current computing capability computer could run the analysis in a reasonable amount of time, the climate change programmer had to have a node size so huge, that a significant sized thunder storm could run through the node without indicating any weather change at all. That represents the failure of climate change computer models to construct a model so monstrous in size that it is incapable to registering any minute weather or temperature changes. There is a significant limitation to any computer program trying to analyze something as large as the Earth.

In Chapter 6, I mentioned that clouds and their aerosol components play a major role in climate study. Yet, cloud behavior is usually ignored in climate models which are focused only on the CO2 concentration because it is easier.

For a final comment on computer modeling, the standard process for all programming is to run the model for a situation that is known to see if it properly predicts the known outcome.  This is called validating the model.  One writes the program, inputs the various values for the computer to calculate all the answers.  Then you compare the answers provided by the computer to the known results.  If the predicted values match the known values, then your model has been validated.  This is an important “proof” that the model will accurately predict the outcome.  To date, no climate model has ever successfully been validated.  This means that the computer program cannot even predict values that are known.  If that is the case, then how can the results of these climate predictions be considered definitive? As I previously said, “garbage in equals garbage out”.

In all the previous chapters, we have learned that there are many different natural forces that can affect the average Earth temperature.  Orbital mechanics can greatly affect how much solar energy reaches Earth by changing the distance that the energy had to travel.  While this can create significant differences, the normal time period of events is in the thousands of years.  The exception is Nutation which briefly shifts the rocking and swaying of tilt angle that happens about every 18.6 years.  We are safe for now.  On a much smaller time period, we learned that El Nino can affect the weather over just a few years.  However, climate scientists seemingly only want to focus on the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.  There are many other natural factors with greater potential for change than man-made carbon dioxide.  If climate predictions are only based upon atmospheric CO2, which is increasing, and that increased CO2 equates to increased temperature, then all these computer programs will certainly predict warmer Earth temperatures.  Additionally, if the programmers purposely omitted some information, the predicted results would be biased.  There really is another side to this debate.  In fact, there are many climate scientists that do not believe that a small change of CO2 has the power to cause global warming.

The most important question to address now has to do with why these man-made climate change scientists are so convinced and very vocal that any climate change is due to man-made CO2.  With that, I would like to end this chapter and go into the next chapter with a quote from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) which will be referenced again in the next chapter.  The quote below also summarizes what this chapter taught us.

GCMs (Global Climate Models) are complex, three-dimensional computer-based models of the atmospheric circulation.  Uncertainties in our understanding of climate process, the natural variability of the climate, and limitations of the CGMs mean that their results are not definite predictions of climate.”

Chapter 8 – Summary of the Variables Capable of Changing Earth’s Temperature

By Michael Belsick

Just as a pre-summary, I thought that it would be prudent to summarize all the variables discussed so far that can affect the weather or climate.

We learned that the sun is our only source of life-giving heat to our Planet Earth.  However, the orbit and the rotation of the Earth on its axis can and does change over time such that the sun’s solar energy can be greater or smaller.  These changes in solar energy will cause global ice ages about every 100,000 years.  Precession and tilt have periods of 24,000 years and 41,000 years respectively.  Currently, the Earth is in an interglacial period meaning that we have nice warm weather to enjoy for still thousands of years.  The main point of this fact is to say that climate change is real.  It has been this way for millions of years.  However, it is not as man-made climate change believers want you to understand.

We learned that the Earth’s energy budget accepts all the sun’s energy that shines on Earth and eventually releases it all back into space after bouncing it around the atmosphere to keep us warm at night.  The greenhouse gases, with water vapor having more significant impact than carbon dioxide, is primary responsible for this.  Anthropogenic climate change believers are telling us that man-made CO2 is trapping more energy causing the Earth to warm unnaturally.  However, it was also shown that the Earth has only changed temperature 1.4 degree F since 1850 and there seems to be no proof that this was due to CO2.

We learned that the Earth has its own heating and ventilation system, that doesn’t generate heat or cold, but rather moves heat and cold around the globe.  Natural forces generate wind and ocean currents that move this heat or cold around.  While people often like this change, there are times when people do not.  One example of these unfavorable times is the Santa Ana winds in California that turn a small brush fire into a raging forest fire.

Water vapor in the form of clouds has a significant impact on solar radiation which affects the Earth’s temperature.  All the climate predictions from man-made climate change believers ignore the very significant impact that clouds (water vapor – the major component of greenhouse gases) have on temperature because it is too complicated.

 

 

Chapter 7 – The Difference Between “Weather” and “Climate”

By Michael Belsick

 

Weather is the normal pattern of hot/cold, wet/dry, and calm/windy that we are used to experiencing during the year and seasons.  If it happens to be 1 degree warmer than what you remember, then you have not lived long enough to understand or appreciate normal weather variability.  Climate is the general term used to describe the normal weather patterns, including minor extremes that may occur at regular intervals, during all seasons for a particular location and for a period of time of 30 years or more.  In other words, a record setting warm day, a little less ice in the Arctic, the size of a glacier, one heavy rain fall causing flooding, or a more destructive hurricane than normal does not represent a climate change event.  Minor weather changes from memory does not rise to the level of a climate change event unless it continues for 30 years or more.  Here are some facts to counter the claims from anthropogenic climate change believers:

Temperature Increase

Man-made climate change believers tell us that the Earth is getting hotter.  They blame man-made CO2 emissions increasing the greenhouse gases trapping more heat from escaping the Earth.

    • From 1850 to 1940, the global average temperature rose by 1.04 degrees F when CO2 levels were lower than today.
    • From 1940 to 1970, the temperature declined by 0.36 degrees F. (There was concern of a pending ice age.)
    • From approximately 1975 to 1997, the average temperature increased by 0.72 degrees F.
    • From 1997 to 2016, there has been no change at all in the global average temperature.
    • As a recap, here are the average global temperatures in degrees F:

o             1850:  56.6 (beginning of the industrialized revolution)

o             1940:  57.64

o             1970/1975:  57.28

o             1997:  58.0

o             2016:  58.0

    • 25% of human emitted CO2 occurred 1850-1940 with a global average temperature rise of 1.04 degree F
    • 75% of human emitted CO2 occurred 1940-2016 with global average temperature rise of 0.36 degrees F
    • 1/3 of human emitted CO2 occurred during 1997-2016 with NO temperature change

If you recall the graph of Earth temperature and CO2 concentrations, both have gone up and down for the past 800,000 years.  The industrial revolution started, in only a few countries at first, in 1850.  CO2 concentrations have been climbing steadily since then due to man-made production.  However, if you look at the temperature data above, which is documented, global temperature rose by 1.04 degree F by 1940, but then declined by 0.36 degree F for the next 30 years as industrialization ramped up.  After 166 years of industrialization, the average Earth temperature rose by only 1.4 degree F.  If your household thermostat changed by 1.4 degree F, would you even notice it?  Also, there is no absolute proof that increased CO2 caused this temperature rise.  From 1940 to 1970, temperature dropped as CO2 increased.  From 1997 to 2016 when more CO2 entered the atmosphere, there was no temperature change at all.  How could anyone claim with certainty that CO2 concentrations drive temperature changes when the data does not support that?

Melting Ice Caps

Anthropogenic climate change believers are telling us that man-made climate change is melting the polar ice caps. The left picture in Figure 28 is the first satellite photo of the Arctic Ice Cap. It was taken in 1979 which happened to capture the Arctic Ice Cap at its peak.  Clearly, in twenty years there is less Arctic Polar ice, shown in the photo on the right.  What was the ice coverage before 1979? According to written documentation (ships logs instead of satellite imagery) there was less ice.  Polar ice levels go up and down constantly.  With CO2 levels rising since 1850, how is the increase of ice between 1940 and 1979 (shown in Figure 29) explained?

Figure 28. Northern Ice Cap

No one is offering a suggestion.  Maybe there are more things going on that are unrelated to CO2 concentrations such as what was mentioned in Chapter 3 regarding the Milankovitch Cycles pushing warmer water into the Arctic in 2006.

 Figure 29. Polar Ice Caps

As an interesting footnote, when climate researchers sailed to Antarctica to measure the melting ice at the southern pole, their ship got stuck in the expanding ice fields in January 2014 (summer in the southern hemisphere).  The researchers had to be rescued by a large plane that landed on the floating ice fields.  While ice may (or may not be significantly changing) in the Arctic, ice has been increasing in the Antarctic for some time.  How would worldwide global warming only affect the Arctic and not the Antarctic?

Glaciers

Like the disappearing polar ice in the Arctic, man-made climate change believers claim that glaciers across the world are diminishing due to man-made global warming.  Figure 30 is the first ever photograph of the Lyell Glacier in 1883 and then again in 2013.  Believers claim that this melting is due to man-made climate change. Conversely, geologists know that Yosemite Valley in California was carved out by eons of glacier activity.    Scientists agree that almost all the glacier activity in Yosemite ended 10,000 years ago.  So, massive glacier reduction 10,000 years ago was natural but minor glacier reduction is due to man?  This seems farfetched.

 Figure 30. Lyell Glacier

Rain and Floods

 

Figure 31. High Water Marks in Passau, Germany

Not only do man-made climate change believers tell us that we are creating deserts, but we are also flooding areas more than ever before.  If one looks at any geological map around a known creek or river, you will find lines parallel to the water flow indicating the possible flooding that can occur within these bounds due to a “100-year flood”.  Geologists know that any waterway can flood during highly unusual large rain totals.  So, they indicate this info on geological survey maps.  If someone builds a house within a 100-year flood plain, they really should not be surprised when their house is flooded even if they are not old enough to have ever seen a 100-year flood at this location.

Still, man-made climate change believers will tell you that recent higher levels of CO2 are increasing the threat of known floods.  In Europe where stone buildings have lasted hundreds of years, it is easy to see the high-water marks on buildings near rivers.  Sure enough, there is a stone building in Passau, Germany showing a high-level mark over 6 feet up from the ground indicating the “climate change” flood of 2002, shown in Figure 31.  However, the flood of 1501 was about 5 feet higher than the one in 2002.  How could man-made industrialization cause flooding in 1501?  By the way, I took the photo when I was there on vacation earlier this year.  As we traveled along the Danube River, there were plenty of other buildings showing the same thing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hurricanes

We are told that hurricanes are getting more frequent and more devastating.  Sadly, most of the information online tells you how hurricanes are getting more destructive instead of telling you the raw facts about the number and category of hurricane strengths.  With people building homes and businesses in locations frequently damaged by hurricanes and the fact that repair costs always go up, a criterion of “devastation” does not tell you if there are more hurricanes or stronger hurricanes than normal.  If a bull escapes and breaks into a small-town grocery store doing $1000 worth of damage but then breaks into the store next store selling Waterford crystal doing $100,000 worth of damage, did the bull get bigger?  The information shown in Figure 32 and Figure 33 provides the most honest answer to this question.  (Sorry for charts not showing recent hurricanes.  I had to go several pages deep in Google to find anything that did not only address hurricanes in terms of destructive costs.)

  Figure 32. US Hurricane Strikes by Decade

 Figure 33. Global Hurricane Strikes

As one looks at the global and the US data, there is no significant increase in trend in the number of hurricanes or intensity during the time when man-made CO2 concentrations were on a constant rise.  I don’t doubt that total hurricane damage is getting more expensive but it is due to cost reasons, not man-made higher levels of CO2 causing stronger hurricanes.

Tornados

Just like the total number and strength of hurricanes do not increase due to man-made climate change, US tornados have also not gotten any worse in recent years, as shown in Figure 34.

 Figure 34. US Count of Strong to Violent Tornadoes (F3+), 1954 through 2014

Ocean Levels Rising

We are told that ocean levels will rise 4 feet within the next century.  While anyone can predict anything that they want, current ocean levels are rising 1.4 millimeters per year (0.055 inches per year or 4.4 inches at the current rate after 80 years) as measured by satellites.  At that rate, in 12 years when man-made climate change is supposedly irreversible and cataclysmic, the oceans will have risen 0.66 inches from today.  That will hardly flood all of Florida or even come anywhere close to President Obama’s new ocean front home.

Summary

This chapter discussed claims of rising temperatures, melting ice caps (Arctic and Antarctic), river flooding and hurricanes that supposedly per man-made climate change believers are all getting much worse due to man-made CO2.  Honest real data does not support any claim or possible future predictions.

    • Since 1850, temperatures have gone up and down but only risen 1.4 degrees F total.
    • Currently, Arctic ice is slowly melting but written records indicate that ice levels increase and decrease normally. As for the Antarctic, ice levels are building.
    • Glaciers are slowly melting, but they have been doing this for thousands of years, which is long before man-made CO2 production.
    • Flooding is a normal event. Comparatively, the Passau flood in the year 1501 was significantly worse than the most recent 2002 flood.
    • There has been no observable increase of frequency or intensity of hurricanes since 1851. The cost of hurricane damage has been increasing but that is not due to man-made climate change.
    • There have been no significant changes in quantity or severity of tornados.
    • Ocean levels are currently rising 0.055 inches per year. That is hardly going to flood any coastal population in the near term.

Chapter 6b – The Earth’s Heating and Ventilation System

By Michael Belsick

 

Clouds

Two of the most important and least understood elements in climate studies are the effects of clouds and aerosols.  (Aerosols are minute solid and liquid matter such as smoke particles from fires or ash from volcanos, ocean spray, or microscopic specks of wind-blown soil; not the layman’s definition of something sprayed from a can or bottle like hairspray.)  All cloud droplets have a speck of dirt, dust, or salt crystal at their core.  Without aerosol particles, there would be no clouds.  Two clouds having identical altitudes, thickness and water content can have very different effects on the climate due to the particular aerosol(s) content.  The type of aerosol can also affect the cloud albedo, which affects the reflectivity of solar radiation.  Generally, low thick clouds primarily reflect solar radiation and cool the Earth surface.  High thin clouds are primarily transparent to incoming solar radiation; at the same time, they trap some of the outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the Earth thereby warming the surface.

The size of the cloud droplet that makes up the clouds resulting from the properties of the particular aerosol(s) has a huge impact on the reflection ability (albedo) and precipitation.  Fewer aerosols (cleaner air), results in more droplets per aerosol particle such that each droplet contains more water.  This produces dark clouds with heavy droplets that precipitate (rain) and therefore are shorter lasting and have relatively low albedo.  More aerosols (higher polluted air) have the opposite effect.  They have fewer water droplets per aerosol particle resulting in larger, brighter more reflective clouds (high albedo) that are longer lasting since they do not produce rain.

Clouds contribute more (25%) to the greenhouse effect than CO2 (20%).  Of the total amount of CO2, only 5% is human caused, so 1% of the greenhouse gas is attributed to humans, or clouds contribute 25 times more than human caused CO2!

Here are some quotes by some climate scientists:

    • Vahrenholt and Luning: “Whatever controls the clouds, rules the climate.”
    • Voiland: “Just a 5% increase in cloud reflectivity could compensate for the entire increase in greenhouse gases from the modern industrial era in the global average.”
    • Plimer: “A 1% change in cloudiness could account for all 20th century warming.”
    • R John Holdren (President Obama’s science advisor): “…a mere one percent increase in cloud cover would decrease a surface temperature by 0.8 degree C (1.4 degree F).”

The bottom line is that clouds are generally understood but it is difficult to write a computer program for clouds unless one can calculate the aerosol component for each cloud.  As such, many climate scientists ignore clouds and focus only on CO2 concentrations because that is much easier.

The Oceans

Figure 19 shows the Walker Cell, operating along the equator and about 300 miles on both sides of the equator.   The Walker Cell moves air in the east/west direction.  (If you recall the Hadley, Ferrel and Polar Cells move air primarily in the north/south direction.  The Walker Cell overlaps the Hadley Cell with the two affecting 1/3 of the globe.)  The Walker Cell Trade Winds pushes the surface water in the same direction of the wind.  Because there is a land mass stopping the surface water current, there is a build-up (higher elevation) of water at one end of the ocean “bowl”.   The build-up of water forces the deeper water to travel in the opposite direction, creating an opposite rotation of water flow as the air flow.

Figure 19. Walker Cell (East-West Currents)

Just like the Earth’s rotation moves air westerly around the globe, the oceans react the same way, as shown in Figure 20.  The main difference is that the ocean currents are restricted by land masses.  When the Panama isthmus was created by plate tectonics, the ocean current from the Atlantic to the Pacific was shut off.  The red lines below represent warmer water; blue lines represent colder water.

Figure 20. Ocean Currents

Figure 21. Depths of the Oceans and the Zones

The Trade Winds and the ocean currents are not constant at or near the equator.  Every 3 to 7 years the Walker Cell and the Trade Winds change intensity and even direction; this is called El Nino or La Nina.  The broader term for this weather pattern is called the El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.  The ENSO cycle is a scientific term that describes the normal fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific.  (Please note that the size of the ocean along the equator in the Pacific is three times longer than in the Atlantic Ocean.  As such, an Atlantic ENSO has far less impact in the Atlantic than the Pacific ENSO cycle.)  It happens naturally and has been doing it since man has been able to record the occurrence.  There are three distinct phases: El Nino (the warm phase), the neutral phase (the average state of wind and ocean circulation patterns), and La Nina (the cold phase) as shown in Figure 22.  Normally, El Nino or La Nina last 9 to 12 months but can last over a year or so.  While what I discuss focuses on the Pacific Ocean from South America to Asia, ENSO can have broader weather effects across the globe.

Neutral Phase

During the neutral phase, depicted in Figure 23 and Figure 24 (a “normal” year), the western side of the Pacific Ocean experiences heavy rainfall and monsoons.  The eastern side of the Pacific experiences dry conditions, even droughts.  Trade Winds trying to equalize the air pressure differences push the upper level of the ocean westward.  This raises the ocean level about a foot higher in the west than in the east.  At the deepest levels, colder water is then forced eastward which then upwells trying to balance the difference in water height.

Please note the significant statement above.  Man-made climate change believers claim that climate change caused by rising CO2 levels is causing the ocean levels to rise.  Here is a case where the normal condition, Trade Winds, causes higher ocean levels in the west.

Figure 23. Neutral Phase – Simple View

Figure 24. Neutral View – Expanded 3-D View

 

El Nino Phase

During El Nino, the weather pattern changes. As shown in Figure 25 and Figure 26, during an El Nino (warm phase), the air pressure patterns reverse with low pressure zones in the eastern Pacific bringing lots of rain and high-pressure zones in the western Pacific bringing drought conditions.  The reversed air pressure zones diminish the normal Trade Winds and may even stop them or reverse them.  The atmospheric Walker Cell flows counterclockwise (normally clockwise for the Neutral period).  The ocean flow also reverses direction and flows clockwise (normally counterclockwise for the Neutral period).  During an El Nino, the western Pacific is much drier.  Conversely, the eastern Pacific is warm and wet.  Please note the natural weather pattern shift (not climate change) that makes Australia dry as moisture moves eastward.  As I write this, Australia is currently suffering from many raging forests fires due to extremely dry conditions.  Contrary to what some Liberals are saying, these fires are not due to climate change.  Weather variability caused the dry conditions but arsonists (24 in fact) started the fires.  There are also 183 people suspected of lesser legal action.

 Figure 25. El Nino Phase – Simple View

Figure 26. El Nino Phase – Expanded 3-D View

La Nina Phase

During La Nina (cold phase), the wind and ocean currents are exaggerated from the normal (neutral) season cycle, shown in Figure 27. The Walker Cell flows clockwise again during La Nina, like the Neutral phase.  Air pressure in the east becomes even higher than normal.  Air pressure in the west becomes even lower than normal.  The normal Trade Winds become much stronger.  The normal upwelling in the ocean along the eastern side also becomes even stronger.  As for the weather pattern during a La Nina, the eastern to central Pacific become cooler and drier.  The western pacific gets much heavier rainfall and stronger monsoons.  Regions that are typically dry during El Nino tend to become excessively wet during La Nina.

 Figure 27. La Nina Phase – Simple View

Summary

What is the “take away” summary of this chapter?  We learned that natural forces of nature following basic rules of physics and science create a pattern of wind and ocean currents that redistribute moisture and temperature around the globe.  Not only does this help moderate Earth’s temperature differentials, but it brings rain to the lands.  All of this happens naturally.  However, as life giving as this can be, it can also create harsh conditions for life in some locations.  Life in these areas had to adapt to these harsher conditions.  Occasionally, these same natural forces create conditions that changes “normal” weather patterns.  Since these are temporary conditions, they should not be considered as climate changes.  They are merely normal weather patterns.

This chapter discussed two events that seem to change what most consider “normal weather”.  Yearly Santa Ana winds reverse the normal wind patterns in California and bring extremely dry air with very strong winds.  These conditions can turn a minor fire into a devastating raging inferno claiming lives and property.  On a 3 to 7-year period, El Nino and La Nina can have drastic weather changes in the eastern and western Pacific regions of the globe.  Just recently, El Nino created very dry conditions in Australia, which lead to devastating arsonist-caused fires.  These weather events are normal weather and not climate changes.

Finally, this chapter addressed the very difficult subject of predicting clouds composition and the huge impact that it can have on any climate analysis.  Two similar clouds that are identical other than the amount/type of aerosol component can have significantly different effects on global temperature.  As per one quote from a climate scientist, “a 1% change in cloudiness count account for all 20th century warming.”  Yet however, clouds are ignored in climate computer models.

Chapter 6a – The Earth’s Heating and Ventilation System

by Michael Belsick

Just like in homes and businesses, the Earth has its own heating and ventilation system working automatically to heat or cool the Earth.  The main differences are that the Earth’s system is an automatic system that does not require any human input; the Earth’s system takes longer to bring about any changes; and the Earth’s system is far more complex than the ones invented by man.

The simplest explanation to start is that we all know that warm air rises.  Hot air balloons rise when the air inside the balloon is heated.  This air expands due to the heating.  When it expands, the air inside the balloon becomes less dense.  The cooler external air then forces the balloon up.  This same thing causes ice to float, because ice is less dense than liquid water.  In terms of weather, warming produces a low air pressure area where the hot ground has heated the air.  Since every natural system on Earth works to equalize differences, cooler air blows in to fill the low-pressure area.  Everything from now on will be more complex but I will attempt to keep it simple.  Just remember this one important fact:  nature does not like diversity in temperature, pressure, salinity, nearly everything.  As such, nature takes automatic and natural steps to equalize or balance everything that it can.  At its disposal, the Earth has atmospheric circulation and ocean currents to move heat around the globe.  Around 60% of the sun’s energy is redistributed by atmospheric circulation and around 40% by ocean currents.  All this movement causes changes in weather.

The Atmosphere

Warm moist air rises along the equator where the solar radiation is the strongest.  As it rises, it is cooled and pushed out of the way by warmer moist air still rising.  As the air cools, it becomes denser and falls.  This rising and falling creates 3 circular patterns of air flow between the equator and the poles.  These patterns are called the Hadley Cell, the Ferrel Cell, and the Polar Cell as can be seen in Figure 14.

Figure 14. Air Flow Patterns

Just to make sure that everyone is aware as to what direction the Earth spins, Figure 15 is a view showing why the sun seems to rise in the east and sets in the west.  As shown in Figure 14, the air flow patterns in the Hadley Cell, the Ferrel Cell, and Polar Cell are predominately a north/south flow.  Due to the motion of the Earth, air flow in the Hadley Cell lags behind the spinning Earth to appear moving westerly when it is trying to move north to south along the Earth surface.

Figure 15. Spin of Earth

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 16 is a 3-dimensional view of air flow due to the rotation of the Earth. Between the westerly flowing Hadley Cells and the easterly flowing Ferrel Cell, there is very turbulent air called the Subtropical Jet Stream.  Likewise, between the easterly flowing Ferrel Cell and the westerly flowing Polar Cell, there is the Polar Jet Stream.  These are shown in Figure 17. Those of us in the US are familiar with this jet stream if you have ever flown.  If you have a jet stream pushing you, you get to your destination sooner.  Pilots try to find an east to west path that does not put them flying into the jet stream to avoid any delays.

Figure 16. Air Flow

Figure 17. Jet Streams

While the Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar Cells follow a set pattern producing the two different jet streams, the boundary of the cells and the path of the jet streams can vary widely.  A warm day in the US Midwest can turn very cold the next day just because the jet stream path changed bringing cold Arctic air with it.  However, all of this is natural and not affected at all by CO2.

The established patterns of winds bring moisture from ocean evaporation onto the dry lands to fall as rain.  Where high mountains exist, this moist air is forced to a higher elevation which cools it such that it cannot contain the same moisture level.  This causes more rain to fall on the ocean side of the mountain and creates a “rain shadow” on the opposite side of the mountain where little rain falls.  The Sierra Nevada mountain range on the eastern side of California is the source of water for California, but it keeps Nevada from getting hardly any rain.

As previously noted, the cooler air from the Hadley cell and the Ferrel Cell fall back to the surface at the 30th latitude.  This colder air has lost all its original moisture when it rose in altitude at the equator.  If you look at a globe, all the great deserts in the world occur near the 30th North or South latitude.

Santa Ana and Diablo winds that generally occur in autumn, originate from cool, extremely dry high-pressure air over the Great Basin (all of Nevada, much of Oregon and Utah, and portions of California, Idaho, and Wyoming, as shown in Figure 18). They flow east to west into a very low-pressure area over the ocean off California.  These Santa Ana winds are extremely high velocity winds (easily exceeding 40 mph) that have been heated by the ground as they flow west.  Santa Ana winds can rapidly spread any fire started by any means.  These Santa Ana conditions have existed over 5,000 years, and were known to the Native Americans that inhabited this area.  Also, these Santa Ana winds existed long before humans occupied this section of North America.  Any fires spread (but not caused) by Santa Ana winds can be extremely destructive including to any man-made structures.  However, these Santa Ana winds are part of the normal ecology of this region.  While destructive, there is a benefit that comes with Santa Ana winds.  These strong winds push the upper level of the ocean westward allowing for upwelling of nutrient rich colder water which is good for the fisheries off California.

Figure 18. Santa Ana and Diablo Winds