Climate Change, Chapter 12

Chapter 12 – Climate Change Is the Only Thing Constant

By Michael Belsick

Final Instalment

Let’s look back at what we have learned from each chapter and summarize:

  1. We learned that the Left’s claim that 97% of all climate scientist believe in climate change due to increasing amounts of man-made CO2 was actually only around 32%. While we are not allowed public debate on this topic to accurately determine the numbers, the actual percentages do not matter.  What does matter is that there are still lots of scientists that do not believe even significant changes in carbon dioxide concentrations could trigger a climate change event.
  2. We learned that carbon dioxide should never be considered a pollutant because it is critical for life on Earth. We also learned that CO2 only represents about 0.03% of our atmosphere.  Currently however, CO2 is about 0.04% of our atmosphere.  Keep in mind that water vapor, the other greenhouse gas, ranges from near zero in incredibly dry places to around 4% of the atmosphere in incredibly wet places.    We also learned that there may be something that links changes in CO2 concentrations with changes of temperature.  However, we do not know which attribute initiates the change.  Additionally, the data on a chart of temperature and CO2 concentration is questionable at least.
  3. We learned that Milankovitch Cycles affect how the Earth revolves around the sun and around the Earth’s own axis. These changes occur at known periods of time.  These natural changes can have very large impacts on the Earth’s climate, including periods of Ice Ages, independent of CO2  We also learned that all these Milankovitch Cycles can interact with one another affecting something unseen such as tidal changes which then affect something visible like polar ice melting.  It was also known that periods of extreme cold, such as during an ice age, would lower CO2 concentration due to halting of decay process.  We have seen evidence that temperature changes can drive changes to CO2 concentration but not the opposite relationship.  We also learned that volcanos can release monstrous amounts of CO2 with 85% of these volcanos not accounted for by scientists because they are underwater.
  4. We learned a perspective of time that is well beyond our everyday thinking. Massive and significant changes have occurred to the Earth over millions of years.  All of this happened due to natural forces at work.  The presence of mankind or anything that mankind accomplished or generated had no bearing on the causes of these changes.  We also learned that the science of determining what happened and when is not exact; it is a collective best guess.
  5. We learned how solar radiation is reflected into space, used to heat the ground, and how it is bounced around between the Earth and the greenhouse gases in the sky to keep us from freezing at night. This exchange of energy between the Earth and the sky is dependent upon the albedo of the Earth and the water vapor (clouds mostly).  This energy exchange is required for life to exist on Earth.
  6. We learned that natural forces create winds and ocean currents which circulate cool and warm air or water. Essentially, weather is the Earth’s natural heating and ventilation system.  We also learned that there are cycles within cycles that can affect the immediate weather, but these are natural and not part of some growing man-made climate change event.  For example, yearly Santa Ana winds reverse the normal wind patterns in California and bring extremely dry air with very strong winds.  These conditions can turn a minor fire into a devastating raging inferno claiming lives and property. We learned that clouds are the most difficult to account for in any analysis because two similar clouds can behave very differently, thus clouds are typically ignored in climate computer models.  A 1% change in cloudiness could account for all 20th century warming.
  7. We learned that the temperature has risen 1.4 degree F since 1850; Arctic ice may be currently melting some but that is a normal event; Antarctic ice is actually growing; glacier melting has been occurring long before man’s industrialization; river flooding is also a normal weather event with a flood of 1501 being far worse than the most recent one in 2002; there has been no significant change of hurricane frequency or strength since 1851; there has been no significant change of tornado frequency or strength; and ocean levels are currently only rising at a rate of 0.055 inches per year. There is no indication of a pending climate change catastrophe.
  8. We summarized the variables that were capable of changing the Earth’s temperature. The sun is the only real source of heat for the Earth. Milankovitch Cycles affect the amount of heat such that ice ages occur every 100,000 years. The Earth’s energy budget uses the available heat with greenhouse gases (water vapor and CO2) reflecting warmth back to us at night to keep us from freezing.  We learned that the Earth’s average global temperature has only risen 1.4 degree F since 1850 which does not appear to be linked to CO2 concentrations at all.  Normal and natural weather patterns move heat and cold via wind and ocean currents.  Normally, this is very beneficial, but it can have detrimental effects such as California Santa Ana winds rapidly spreading forest fires. We learned that water vapor in the form of clouds has a significant impact on solar radiation which affects the Earth’s temperature.  All the climate predictions from man-made climate change believers ignore the very significant impact that clouds (water vapor – the major component of greenhouse gases) have on temperature because it is too complicated.
  9. We learned that computers are not intelligent or “all knowing”. They are merely incredibly fast at performing tasks.  Essentially, they are only as good as the programmers and reflect any bias of those programmers.  The value or validity of their output represents the value, validity, and accuracy of what was programmed into them.  As such, computers can easily provide false or incomplete answers.  (“Garbage in equals garbage out”).  Finally, while computers are great at some tasks, a global climate computer program is very complex and requires assumptions and simplifications.  Uncertainties in our understanding of climate process; the natural variability of the climate; ignoring what is not understood or is too complicated; and limitations of models, time, and computer processing capability means that the results are not definite predictions of climate.
  10. All the supposedly scientific studies indicating that anthropogenic CO2 is causing global warming comes from the IPCC, which is part of the UN. The IPCC provides grant money to those willing to produce the desired data.  Then the IPCC selects the acceptable scientific papers and data to include in a summary report that is finally handed out to politicians, bureaucrats and the Media.  Thanks to a “whistleblower” that leaked thousands of emails, it was learned that there has been extensive corruption in climate science to promote any research that supports man-made climate change and to suppress research indicating the opposite fact.  Leaked moments of honesty by those involved in this corruption indicate that everything that they do has nothing to do with climate change environmentalism.  It is all about wealth redistribution.
  11. We learned that the “promise” of several renewable energy sources is lacking. For various reasons, several options are extremely unlikely to be able to expand sufficiently to help replace fossil fuels.  Of the viable options, they are unlikely to be able to expand enough to completely replace the need for fossil fuels within the 12 year “catastrophe” deadline.  Additionally, the low cost of fossil fuels will add to the perceived cost of switching to renewable energy sources.  Finally, while renewable energy options seem the best environmentally, a few of the renewable energy options contain hidden environmental and cost factors/impacts that need to be addressed.  In short, renewable energy options cannot replace fossil fuels in 12 years but may in future decades.

 

Conclusion

Everything that I have mentioned in this series of articles is true, documented, and readily available.  However, if you ask Google if man-made climate change is real, then you will get several different websites all claiming that man-made climate change is real.  Conversely, if you ask Google for specific data then you will find information that disputes what the previous man-made climate change sites just told you. For example, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml  contains the data that I presented from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concerning the strength and frequency of hurricanes over the past several years.  So, the real information is available online if you ask for the specific information and not some summary of that information.

Personally, I am a firm believer in natural climate change.  There are tons of clear geological and fossil evidence that the Earth has undergone significant climate changes over the eons of time following natural events and geological changes (ex. continental drift, large meteor impact, etc) plus the Milankovitch Cycles causing ice ages about every 100,000 years.

I also believe, because it can be easily measured, that CO2 levels are higher now than they ever have been before during the past 800,000 years per Antarctic ice core sample.  If you are a plant, like to eat plants, or like to eat animals that eat plants, all this extra CO2 in the atmosphere may be beneficial to life on Earth.

However, there is absolutely no proof that slightly higher levels of CO2 will cause Earth temperatures to rise to levels never experienced.  All man-made climate change predictions are based solely upon changes to the CO2 concentrations.  That is one reason why all predictions have not come true.  Just because Milankovitch determined temperatures changes appear to be in synch with Antarctic ice core CO2 levels does not prove that changes in CO2 levels changed the temperatures.  In fact, Al Gore once had to admit that changes in CO2 concentration lagged the temperature changes.  Rising CO2 concentration raising Earth temperature would be like saying thunder causes lightning.  Gore’s admission reinforces my belief that changes in Earth temperature affected the rate of organic decay, which in turn affected the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.  Otherwise, what caused regular changes in CO2 concentrations eons before modern man’s industrial revolution?

Finally, just because someone says that today’s high temperature is “record setting” does not mean that the same or higher local temperature never existed before someone was there to record it.  Claims of record heat levels, record setting floods, record setting storms, or record setting levels of polar ice melts does not prove that it never existed before.  Generally, it means that the person making these comments is not old enough to remember what occurred many years before.  Weather is never constant and there should be no expectation that it will ever be.

Throughout this document, different chapters offered explanations as to why average Earth temperature could fall and rise independently from CO2; how CO2 is formed and used; how the sun heats the Earth; how the sun’s energy changes over time; how weather is created by differences in solar heating on Earth, and how weather and ocean currents, in turn, distributes that heat and cold around the Earth.  Additionally, real data was provided to rebuke claims made by man-made climate change believers.  It is an illogical argument to make a drastic prediction and then use that prediction as proof for your position on any issue.  (ex., Global warming is making the Earth hotter, which is proof that global warming is real.)  Finally, an explanation was provided as to how climate science can be corrupted due to a political bias that has nothing to do with climate science.  For everything mentioned here, I am a man-made climate change denier and proud of it for being able to see through the fog of deception and go directly to the science.

I also want to state that the anthropogenic climate change believers are using scare tactics to urge the general population to accept their false claims such that the population will be willing to sacrifice everything in order to save the human race.  Let me be quite clear when I say this.  Climate change is real (not due to CO2 concentrations).  It happens repeatedly throughout the history of the Earth and life on Earth.  Most importantly, climate change never killed off all life on Earth.  The wooly mammoth is a good example.  This early relative to the Asian elephant was adapted to nicely survive the ice age.  However, as the ice age came to an end as the Earth warmed up, the wooly mammoth was less suited for the warmer climate.  What then sealed the fate of the wooly mammoth was the arrival of cave men that hunted the small remaining population to extinction.  Cave men survived the ice age and thrived as things got warmer.  The only “climate change” that brought about an abrupt extinction level event was when a very large meteor (6 to 9 miles wide) crashed into the Earth sending up a cloud of dust into the atmosphere that lasted long enough, blocking out the sun, such that all dinosaurs died out.  However, luckily for us, all the smaller mammals survived.  The age of the dinosaurs ended as the age of mammals began.

I understand that some people, mainly Liberals, will never accept what I have explained in these chapters.  After all, I admitted being a “denier”.  For those, I have two recommendations:

  • If you still believe that man-made CO2 is destroying the Earth, then I hope that you at least go protest the countries that produce the most CO2 “pollution”.  CO2 production in the US has already started declining, shown in Figure 44.  Meanwhile, CO2 emissions in China and India are escalating.  Travel there to protest.

Figure 44. How Carbon Emissions have Changed Since 2000

  • If you still believe that a 10% reduction of CO2 in the US is not enough, then here is a simple way to cut all US CO2 emissions in half:
    • After you read this, immediately throw away all your car keys, even if you have an electric vehicle since you do not know how that electricity was generated.
    • Go buy a bicycle. Save the environment and get exercise at the same time.
    • Turn off all heating and electrical power to your house. Natural gas is bad, and you still do not know where that electricity comes from.
    • I could suggest getting a horse, but they produce methane.
    • Take out all lawn and plant a vegetable garden to avoid trips to any grocery store.
    • Adopt a lifestyle that your great great grandparents had and enjoy feeling that you have truly done your part to save the planet.

Following these two suggestions will cut US CO2 emissions in half once all Democrats adopt a more primitive but enlightened lifestyle.  As you sit on your front porch rocking away the evening because there is no TV Media, please feel free to condemn all Republicans for keeping their modern conveniences.

As an important take-away from what I have written, everyone, Republicans and Democrats, wants clean air and water.  Please do not confuse CO2 higher concentrations with smog which is mostly nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, ozone, smoke and other particulates suspended in air.  Carbon dioxide is odorless and colorless, meaning that you cannot smell it or see it.  As I have indicated with scientific facts, the higher levels of carbon dioxide indicated has not been proven to be responsible for any increase in Earth’s temperature or climate change.

As a final thought to Democrats, I understand that you like to believe whatever Democratic politicians or those in the Media tell you to believe because you trust them.  Please be skeptical enough to do some research on your own to prove to yourself that what I have written is true.  Then you will realize that those you trusted have misled you.

As a final thought to Republicans, if you are willing to resist Progressive notions that Socialism will make the US better, why do you stay silent when Progressives claim that man-made climate change is real and we must immediately stop using all fossil fuels and surrender control to a Progressive government?  Stand up for the truth!

As a final thought to leave for Greta Thumberg:

Climate Change is NOT killing off all the polar bears or your generation! (see Figure 45)

Go back home and try to be a normal teenager ignoring what adults tell you.

Figure 45. Polar Bear Population Estimates

Here is list of just a few climate change books that I have read:

  • The Real Inconvenient Truth by M.J. Sangster PhD
  • The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science by Tim Ball PhD
  • Inconvenient Facts by Jack Wadden
  • Plus, there is always the Internet once you get past the references that the Left wants you to read

 

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